NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 4/6/21
There are nine games to look forward to in the NHL tonight, which means we have plenty of spots to find value on the betting board. We're breaking down a pair of East Division games in today's NHL Betting Guide, looking to take advantage of the over trend that started last night.
Here are the plays from our daily projections!
Bruins Moneyline (-142): 1-Star Rating out of 5
Over 5.5 (-110): 1-Star Rating out of 5
The Philadelphia Flyers and Boston Bruins are meeting for the second night of a back-to-back in Philly tonight. The Flyers took the first game 3-2 in overtime, but based on our projections, it's a good spot to back the Bruins tonight.
Boston has been playing reliable hockey at five-on-five over their recent sample. The Bruins have posted an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% in four of their last six, with last night's contest checking in at exactly 50.0%, which means they have been outplayed only once over their last six games.
After going with Brian Elliott on the first night of the back-to-back, Carter Hart gets the start for the Flyers. Hart allowed two goals on 24 shots the last time out, which was the first time in seven starts that he allowed fewer than three goals and the first time in 11 starts that he stopped more than 90.0% of shots faced. Hart has struggled against the Bruins this season, stopping 84.3% of shots and establishing a 5.32 goals-against average.
Last night was the first time the Flyers beat the Bruins this season. To this point, the Flyers have gone 1-3-2 and put up a cumulative expected goals-for percentage of 44.5% at five-on-five.
The Bruins are the better team and, based on our projections, the right side to be on when these teams face off tonight. Taking the Bruins and the over 5.5 are both rated as one-star wagers.
Islanders Moneyline (-130): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Over 5.5 (-114): 1-Star Rating out of 5
The last time the New York Islanders played the Washington Capitals, the Islanders delivered an 8-4 shellacking. The Islanders are short home favorites tonight and also the team to support in the betting market.
At five-on-five, the Islanders are one of the best teams in the league. Their expected goals-for percentage of 54.0% has them tied with the Toronto Maple Leafs for the fourth-best mark in the league. They are in good form, as well, outplaying their last four opponents by a cumulative 58.7%. That includes their most recent meeting with the Caps, in which they thoroughly outplayed them.
Getting outplayed has been a common theme for the Capitals recently. At five-on-five, Washington has posted an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% just once over their last six games. Production metrics are decreasing, with the team attempting no more than 12 high-danger attempts and 27 scoring opportunities across all strengths in any of their last four games.
High-danger goals-against continue to be of particular concern, as 13 of their opponents' last 18 goals have come from high-danger areas, including six the last time these two met. That's been a strength for the Islanders recently, as they've scored 23 high-danger goals over their last eight games.
The home team has won all four matchups so far this season, and we're expecting that trend to continue tonight. The Islanders are -130, which carries an implied probability of 56.5%. Based on our projections, they have a 63.2% chance of winning tonight. It's on that basis that taking them on the moneyline is a two-star play. There's also an advantage in taking the over 5.5; we rate it as a one-star play.