NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 4/13/21

The Capitals and Flyers have gone over in three of four this season. What do our projections say about how you should approach their matchup tonight?

The NHL trade deadline is behind us, and teams have either geared up or sold off for the stretch run. There are some interesting playoff races shaping up as we head into the season's last month. The NHL East is one of the divisions that will be competitive to end the season, as six of the eight teams are vying for a berth in the postseason. It's on that basis that we're breaking down a couple of East Division matchups in today's NHL Betting Guide.

Here are a few plays from our daily projections!

Washington Capitals vs. Philadelphia Flyers

Capitals Moneyline (-164): 1-Star Rating out of 5
Over 6.5 (-112): 1-Star Rating out of 5

No team has worse goaltending metrics than the Philadelphia Flyers. Tonight, they have the unenviable task of slowing down a Washington Capitals offense that is starting to increase their production metrics.

Over their last four games, the Caps have attempted 9.8 high-danger chances, 32.0 shots, and 26.5 scoring chances per game, all of which are improvements over their regular season averages. Washington has been one of the best finishing teams in the league all season, and their recent sample is no different. Washington has a 12.2% shooting percentage on the season and have gone above that in seven of their last 11 games.

That is going to make things challenging for the Flyers, who are stopping only 87.8% of shots this season. Carter Hart and Brian Elliott had a brief spell in which they posted above-average save percentages in four of five games, but they have followed that up with bad outings in two of their last four.

The head-to-head metrics from this season show just how much Flyers' goalies have struggled against Washington this season. Hart and Elliott have combined to stop only 84.4% of shots, losing three of the four contests. They have allowed 17 goals through four games, with three of those going over the total.

These teams come into this one on a pretty reliable over trend, with the Caps dominating the season series. Our projections imply that backing the Caps and the over are the wagers to make in this one, and both are rated as one-star plays.

New Jersey Devils vs. New York Rangers

Under 5.5 (+110): 1-Star Rating out of 5
Devils Moneyline (+160): 1-Star Rating out of 5

One team with no playoff aspirations is the New Jersey Devils. New Jersey sold off some of their more valuable pieces but can still embrace the role of spoiler to end the season. They can start by taking a run at the New York Rangers on Tuesday night.

The Devils have metrics working in their favor ahead of tonight's contest. They have equaled or out-chanced their opponents in high-danger chances in six straight games and out-shot and out-chanced opponents in scoring chances in five straight. New Jersey only has one win over the six-game sample despite their improved play.

Mackenzie Blackwood and Aaron Dell have combined to stop only 79.1% of shots over the last six games and are way off career norms. Blackwood will eventually get back to average, but even getting back to the low end of the goaltending metrics spectrum would go a long way to helping the Devils secure victory.

The Rangers are a playoff hopeful team whose metrics have them pointed in the wrong direction. The Blue Shirts have given up 10 or more high-danger opportunities in four straight and 28 or more scoring chances in three of four. Opponents are averaging 13.8 high-danger and 29.3 scoring chances per game over that span. The Rangers have also been out-possessed in all four.

New York is 6-3-2 over their last 11 but appears to be entering a correction phase; don't be surprised if wins are harder for the Rangers to come by over the coming games.

An improved effort from Blackwood would not only help the Devils win tonight but also help the game stay under the total. Based on our projections, both plays are worth making tonight. Devils moneyline and the under 5.5 are rated as one-star plays.