NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 4/21/21
After being teased with a four-game slate last night, we'll have to pace ourselves with the 10 games that our scheduled for tonight. We are highlighting a pair of games, one from the East Division and one from the North Division, that present value on the betting board tonight.
Here are the plays from our daily projections!
Rangers moneyline (-168): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Rangers -1.5 (+158): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Carter Hart and Brian Elliott have combined for the worst save percentage in the NHL, stopping only 88.0% of shots faced, which is almost a full percentage point lower than the next closest team. There's a relative improvement in their high-danger save percentage, with the Flyers goalies ranking fourth-last stopping shots from high-danger areas.
Artemi Panarin missed just under a month worth of action from the middle of February until the middle of March. But he's ignited the team since he's been back. Panarin has put up 34 points in the 21 games since his return and has helped the Rangers establish a 14.3% shooting percentage over that time. Panarin's also had the Flyers number over his career, putting up 27 points in 20 games played. He could have a field day against the Flyers goaltenders.
Philadelphia has had a hard time limiting opponents on the road, ranking in the bottom third of the league in defensive metrics. They've been particularly bad over their recent stretch, allowing 10 or more high-danger chances in six of eight, with opponents averaging 12.3 over that span. It won't be easy limiting an efficient Rangers offense.
The Flyers have one win over their last four games, allowing five or more goals in three of those losses. We should expect some line movement in the Rangers' favor. They are -168 favorites but have a 77.2% chance of winning, according to our projections. There's an implied advantage in backing the Rangers to win and cover -1.5 as a favorite; we rate those plays as four- and three-star plays, respectively.
Jets +1.5 (-215): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Jets moneyline (+114): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Toronto was dominated in the second game, putting up an expected goals-for percentage of 42.8%. That was only their second-worst expected goals-for percentage over their last three road games, after putting up a 39.4% mark against the Montreal Canadiens on April 12.
The Leafs' troubles are being compounded by suspect goaltending. Jack Campbell was riding high during a ten-game stretch. He's since come back down to earth, losing three straight and stopping only 83.3%. He'll have a hard time improving those metrics against a Jets team that is one of the best offensive teams in the league.
Winnipeg ranks sixth in the league in shooting percentage, scoring on 10.8% of their shots. The Jets may have been shut out in their most recent contest, but they have otherwise been operating efficiently over their recent games. The Jets have scored three or more in five of their last seven, including being shutout, scoring on 11.0% of shots, which is a slight improvement over their season-long percentage.
The Jets have been resting at home for the last five nights and should be fresh after having the last four nights off. Based on our projections, the Jets should be favored against the Leafs but are currently priced as +114 underdogs. That leaves an edge in backing the home side, which is rated as a two-star play. As underdogs, that also leaves an advantage in taking them to cover the puckline, which is a three-star play.