NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 6/2/21

We are officially into the second round of the playoffs. The Winnipeg Jets and Montreal Canadiens are the last series to join the next round, and with that, we have confirmed matchup pairings for the semifinals. Regardless of outcomes, the West Division winner will play the North Division winner, while the Central and East Division champs will face off. We're back to two games a night for the next 10 days unless a team is eliminated in advance of that.

Here are a few plays from our daily projections!

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Colorado Avalanche vs. Vegas Golden Knights

Golden Knights moneyline (+180): 1-Star Rating out of 5
Under 5.5 (-106): 2-Star Rating out of 5

Game 1 should have been the wake-up call that the Vegas Golden Knights needed to get their game plan in order. The Golden Knights were humbled in a 7-1 defeat, but the advanced metrics support that the game was a lot closer than the score implied.

Vegas posted an expected goals-for percentage of 49.5% at five-on-five, which plummeted to 28.3% across all strengths, thanks in part to the Knights spending 9:21 on the penalty kill. A more disciplined effort should be expected from the Knights, which will level the playing field.

Game 2 also features the return of Marc-Andre Fleury to the crease. Fleury was given the night off in Game 1, and the Knights paid dearly for it. Robin Lehner did what he could, but his 81.1% wasn't good enough to keep the Knights competitive. Fleury is an upgrade in net, and Vegas will benefit from having him and his 93.1% save percentage between the pipes.

You would expect that a seven-goal outburst from the Colorado Avalanche would have resulted from serious production metrics, but that wasn't the case. The Avs attempted just five high-danger chances and 15 scoring chances at five-on-five, jumping to 11 and 28, respectively, across all strengths. Those are reasonable production metrics but altogether not the type of performance that should have resulted in seven goals.

That follows a similar pattern this postseason in which the Avs have overachieved relative to their production. Colorado is scoring on 14.8% of their shots, which is well beyond a sustainable level. That has increased their PDO to 1.089, which is the highest among all playoff teams and an indicator that regression is coming.

The Avs should come back down to earth, and their trip back down towards average will be expedited with Fleury returning to the net. Not only does that create value on the Knights but also on the under. The Knights moneyline is a one-star play, and the under 5.5 is a two-star play, as per our projections.

Winnipeg Jets vs. Montreal Canadiens

Jets moneyline (-152): 1-Star Rating out of 5

The Jets have been waiting for 10 days to find out who they would be playing in the second round, which means they should be fresh for Game 1 against the Habs. Conversely, tonight's contest will be the Habs' sixth game over the last 10 days. Advantage, Jets.

Winnipeg has been a superior team at home all season, and that's been evident this postseason, as well. The Jets averaged 20.8 scoring chances and 9.2 high-danger chances per 60 minutes across all strengths in their two road games in the opening round. Those metrics improve to 24.5 and 9.8, respectively, at home. Their postseason efforts mimic their regular season totals, as the Jets have been better at generating offense at home compared to on the road.

The Canadiens haven't been effective at five-on-five this postseason, and that's been more evident on the road. The Habs have posted an expected goals-for percentage range of 31.8% to 47.0% in four road games, with a cumulative percentage of 41.6%. Their production metrics dip on the road, with the Canadiens attempting 20.6 scoring chances per 60 minutes across all strengths, 6.0 of which come from high-danger areas.

The Jets are an offensive team, and the Habs' metrics imply that they will have a hard time keeping pace on the road. The Habs' chances are compounded by a tough schedule in which they will have played six games over 10 nights in three different cities. The Jets are fresh and should use last change to their advantage to put their scorers in ideal situations.

Based on our projections, the Jets are the side to be on. Backing them on the moneyline is rated as a one-star play.