NHL Betting Guide: Monday 6/7/21
The NHL postseason continues to progress and we're already at the elimination stage of the second round. The Winnipeg Jets face a win-or-go-home situation against the Montreal Canadiens tonight in La Belle Province. The Boston Bruins and New York Islanders kick off tonight's schedule with an earlier than usual 6:30 pm ET puck drop.
Here are a couple of plays from our daily projections!
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Jets +1.5 (-220): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 5.5 (+118): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The Jets' advanced metrics haven't been strong this postseason, but they are trending in the right direction in the second round. Winnipeg has increased scoring chances and high-danger opportunities in each game since opening their series with 18 and 6, respectively. Their supporting metrics have also improved, as they out-possessed the Habs over the last two games and out-shot them at five-on-five in both games. That's a good sign for a team down 3-0 in the series.
Tonight's contest is also the second night of a back-to-back -- a situation that favors the Jets. Winnipeg has won each of their last three games on the second night of a back-to-back situation, scoring a combined 14 goals. Conversely, the Habs are 2-5-0 over their last seven such situations, allowing 28 goals across those seven games, with both wins coming in overtime.
Carey Price and Connor Hellebuyck have the unenviable task of playing in both games, which will be their third games in four nights. As expected, neither goalie has shone in this spot throughout their playoff careers. Price has a 90.0% save percentage and 2.70 goals-against-average while Hellebuyck has posted 88.7% and 2.92 splits.
Questionable goaltending metrics should help this one makes its way over the total. We're not expecting the Jets to go down without a fight. That aligns with our projections, which rate taking Winnipeg +1.5 as a three-star play and the over as a one-star play.
Under 5.5 (-170): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Islanders +1.5 (-184): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
The defenses have been at the forefront of this series and we're expecting that to continue as things tighten up in Game 5.
These teams have combined for 20 or fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five this series, with chances being even harder to come by in Boston. The Islanders and Bruins have combined for 14 high-danger chances at five-on-five in each of the first two games in Boston. The Islanders have been on the short end of that metric, coming in with a combined nine such chances across the two games.
That is a reflection of some efficient defensive efforts at home this season from the B's as they have limited their opponents to 18 high-danger chances through four games, or 4.5 per game. It's a little counterintuitive to see only two of those games stay under the total. Expect some lower-scoring games as the Bruins sustain their defensive structure on home ice.
The Islanders have been riding the hot hand in net, and they've landed on Semyon Varlamov over the last few games. Varlamov has been the Bruins kryptonite, stopping 94.6% of shots while allowing 6 goals in just over 198 minutes of action for a 1.82 goals-against-average. Tuukka Rask has been thriving this postseason as well, posting a 93.5% save percentage while allowing 2 or fewer goals in six of his last seven starts.
Based on our projections, there is an advantage in taking the under and the Islanders to cover +1.5. That aligns with what we're expecting from a tight-checking, defensive battle with outstanding goaltending. Both plays are rated as one-star plays, as per our projections.