NHL Betting Guide: Tuesday 6/15/21
Game 2 between the Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Islanders goes tonight in Tampa. New York stole Game 1 and the Bolts will want to avoid heading back to Long Island down 2-0 but the market appears to be overvaluing the Lightning's chances tonight.
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Islanders moneyline (+160): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Islanders +1.5 (-182): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Efficient defensive zone coverage has been the Islanders' hallmark since Barry Trotz took over and that was on full display in Game 1. The Islanders held the Lightning to eight high-danger chances at five-on-five, which was the fifth time in six games that the Islanders' opponents were limited to nine or fewer. New York's offensive efficiency hasn't been compromised as a result of their defensive structure as they have been out-chanced in high-danger chances just once over the six-game sample.
In addition, New York out-shot the Lightning and out-chanced them in high-danger chances at five-on-five, helping them to an expected goals-for percentage of 53.4%.
Tampa wasn't able to break through until they snapped a powerplay goal past Semyon Varlamov with less than a minute to go while they had the Islanders pinned down on a 6-on-4. That effort prolonged the Lightning's recent five-on-five scoring woes as they have been limited to four goals over their last four goals. More concerning, other than a three-goal outburst they had against the Carolina Hurricanes, the Bolts have been limited to one five-on-five goal in the other three games.
Game 1 was also the seventh time in 12 games that the Lightning have been outplayed at five-on-five this postseason. The Bolts' reliance on special teams is best exemplified in their output metrics, as the Lightning have scored only 19 of their 39 goals at five-on-five this postseason.
Tampa continues to get outplayed this postseason, and as we saw on Sunday, they may be running out of puck luck. The betting market has them installed as -190 favorites, which carries an implied probability of 65.5%, which significantly exceeds our projections, which give them a 58.0% chance of winning. It's on that basis that backing the Islanders on the moneyline and puckline are rated as one-star plays.