NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 3/17/22
It was a chalky Wednesday night with three of the four betting favorites winning and covering the puck line. It's a typically busy Thursday night with 10 games on the go this St. Patrick's Day. Here's hoping the luck of the Irish shines down on your wagers today.
These are the plays we're looking at from our daily projections!
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Maple Leafs Moneyline (-102): 2-Star Rating out of 5
Maple Leafs +1.5 (-265): 3-Star Rating out of 5
It is a homecoming of sorts for Frederik Andersen, who returns to the Scotiabank Arena, where he spent five seasons representing the Toronto Maple Leafs. Andersen's repping the Carolina Hurricanes these days, and the betting market is overestimating their chances as the visitors.
The Danish netminder hasn't been the same goalie on the road as he has at home this season, and that's reflected over his recent sample. Andersen has in-game save percentages below 89.0% in three of his past five road starts. Included in that is a start on the road against the Leafs in which he stopped only 28 of 32 shots. That's going to hurt the Canes' chances against a high-powered Leafs offense.
Even without Auston Matthews, Toronto still managed to put forth one of their best offensive performances of the season their last time out. The Leafs attempted 40 scoring and 18 high-danger chances at five-on-five, resulting in an expected goals-for rating of 3.68, their best second-best rating of the season. It was also the third time over the past five games that they've attempted 18 or more high-danger chances.
According to our projections, the wrong team is favored in tonight's matchup. The Maple Leafs have a 58.4% chance of winning, which surpasses their implied probability of 50.5%. Consequently, there are two- and three-star advantages in backing the Leafs on the moneyline and puckline, respectively.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Florida Panthers
Golden Knights Moneyline (+152): 1-Star Rating out of 5
Ineffective goaltending has limited the Vegas Golden Knights' success over their recent sample, but they continue to put forth strong efforts. We're expecting them to get back in the win column when they host the Florida Panthers on Thursday night.
The Knights' skid comes despite improved performances from the team. Vegas has outplayed their opponents in four of their past five, with three of those expected goals-for ratings coming in above 60.0%. There's a disconnect forming between their metrics and outcomes that suggests the Knights are positive regression candidates.
Conversely, the Panthers have put forth lackluster performances lately, getting outplayed in two of their past four games. Their offensive production has taken a hit with the Panthers attempting more than eight high-danger at five-on-five just once over that stretch.
The Panthers' chances of winning aren't as pronounced as the betting market implies. It's on that basis that we're taking a shot with the Golden Knights as substantive home dogs. We rate the Knights moneyline as a one-star play
