NHL Betting Guide: Thursday 11/17/22
I don't know why some of these odd matchups are causing this, but numberFire's model is having a hard time finding bets on these larger slates. It's been a while since it popped a four-to-five-star rating on a game.
However, we've got three wagers that are doing a couple of things we love: fading the public and finding some value. Let's dig in.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins
Flyers +1.5 (+104) - 2 Stars
As absurd as it is to see a puckline at plus-money, this line might just keep growing as 75% of bets are on the Bruins to cover a 1.5-goal spread. This could be 2.5 goals by the end of the day.
Throwing peripherals and results out the window here is the right process. There is way too much of a path to failure for Boston in this spot, and his name is Carter Hart. Hart has been sensational this year, posting the best goals saved above expectation (14.31 GSAx) in the league.
If it weren't for Hart, the Flyers' record could be unsightly. He's even got a significant edge over Boston's Linus Ullmark (7.18 GSAx), who sits sixth in that category.
Our model and I are on the same page. You just take the solid netminder at this price, and whatever happens next is out of our control. Our model is giving Philadelphia a 55.3% chance to cover a 1.5-goal puckline against these 49.0% implied odds. Check back on the link above later today if this line moves to 2.5 goals at a much steeper price.
New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs
Under 6.5 (+114) - 1 Star
Similar to Hart and the Flyers, this is another line not paying respect to an obvious path to failure.
New Jersey and Toronto are two of the best offenses in the NHL. The Devils are second in expected goals (xGF) per 60 minutes, and the Leafs are ninth. However, New Jersey is also the best team in hockey in expected goals allowed (xGA) per 60, and Toronto is 10th in that category. They're two clubs elite on both ends.
League average scoring this year is 6.2 goals per 60 minutes. Therefore, this line (and its 46.7% implied probability) is telling you we're expecting a shootout in Toronto tonight. In fact, 86% of the money is on the over, and it's probably moving to 7.0 eventually.
When an elite defense meets an elite offense, you can expect a scoring output right in the middle. That's what numberFire's algorithm believes today, giving the under a 51.8% chance to hit. That's a value bet against these implied odds.
New York Islanders at Nashville Predators
Under 6.0 (-124) - 2 Stars
This game is a good lesson to always examine each matchup from multiple lenses.
If I looked at only the skaters in this game, the over would be a smash spot. New York and Nashville -- shockingly to me -- lead the league in xGF per 60 minutes.
They're actually just 11th and 30th, respectively, in actual goals scored per 60 minutes, which is an indictment of the lack of top-end scoring talent in this game. The shots aren't stellar chances from talented scorers.
Plus, the goaltending in this game is absolutely exceptional. Both the Islanders' Ilya Sorokin and the Predators' Juuse Saros have lived up to their Vezina watchlist status. Sorokin is 2nd in GSAx (14.18), and Saros is 12th (4.04).
Just 52% of bets in this spot are on the under -- but 86% of the money is. Sharp bettors love the under in this spot, and we do, too. We expect six or fewer goals here 66.9% of the time against these 55.4% implied odds.
