NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 1/11/23
Though we've got just four games on Wednesday, three came through with multi-star wagers.
Where are they? I'll show you.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All ratings are out of five stars. All NHL betting odds and totals come from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers
Under 6.0 (-106) - 2 Stars
This line dropped from -112 to -106 just this morning, so this one is trending toward 6.5 goals if you'd like to wait.
This game in Philadelphia features two of the top netminders in the NHL this season, and we're not even into the 5.5-goal territory to back them.
The visiting Capitals enter with Darcy Kuemper once again healthy, and Kuemper -- off his championship year with Colorado -- has posted the eighth-best goals saved above expectation (11.58 GSAx) in hockey this season. Carter Hart of the Flyers checks in just a couple of doors down (10.19 GSAx).
That's a great start for the under, but we've also got a pretty solid defensive club in Washington. They've allowed the 12th-fewest expected goals (2.96 xGA) per 60 minutes. Philadelphia's been leakier, but their ninth-worst mark in that category (3.28) is still a significant improvement over last year's team, which was 30th in that category.
Our model expects six or fewer goals in this one 63.8% of the time. That means a 6.5-goal total would have value at any number longer than -176, too.
Nashville Predators at Toronto Maple Leafs
Under 6.0 (-105) - 2 Stars
I got caught in the Maple Leafs' "home favorite" blender last week, but I won't again. I'll back the total here.
This should be a lower-scoring contest. Toronto has allowed the third-fewest goals per 60 minutes in the NHL, and the Predators have allowed the 13th-fewest.
For Nashville, Juuse Saros is following his year as a Vezina Trophy finalist with a season in which he's ranked second in the NHL in GSAx (23.89). He's unquestionably one of the best goaltenders in hockey. Matt Murray (4.65 GSAx) has been as solid as the Leafs could have asked for when blowing up their goalie room this offseason.
Toronto's been stout defensively thanks to their skaters (2.79 xGA per 60 minutes; fifth-best in the NHL), and the Predators have leaned more on their excellent goalie. I don't care how it's done so long as the puck isn't hitting twine.
Our model thinks that this one finishes with six or fewer goals 62.4% of the time. Even factoring in a potential push, the under is a solid bet versus these 51.2% implied odds.
Edmonton Oilers at Anaheim Ducks
Ducks +1.5 (-112) - 2 Stars
Here's the "Pros vs. Joes" capital of the day. I cannot wait to lose money betting on Anaheim again.
Seriously, I wouldn't blame anyone for avoiding the 12-25-4 Ducks given they've been equally bad ATS (17-24). However, when this puckline is getting just 24% of bets but 66% of the money, there are heavy wagers on this side, and we should listen.
Here's the reason why: the Oilers are expected to start Jack Campbell against the lowly Ducks. Campbell (-13.21 GSAx) has lost the starting job to Stuart Skinner (12.31 GSAx), and he's been dreadful in 19 appearances. He's a massive downgrade, and that's not getting enough adjustment from the market.
Now all of a sudden, Anaheim's John Gibson (-3.00 GSAx) is a relative advantage, and we don't need an outright win from the Ducks.
Our model believes Anaheim covers a one-goal spread 58.5% of the time against the 52.7% implied odds. Though it's not official that Campbell starts, I think we can fire on this line now before it moves given Skinner is away from the team awaiting the birth of a child.
