Premier League Betting Guide for Matchweek 6
The midweek Champions League games are sure to have an impact on some of the top EPL teams this weekend, as we may see some squad rotation during Matchweek 6.
Using Paddy Power as the source for lines, let's take a look at some bets you should zero in on this week.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from Paddy Power, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers.
Burnley vs Bournemouth
Burnley to Win or Draw No Bet (Evens)
Burnley are off to an awful start in the EPL, as they sit in last place with a 0W-1D-4L record and a -7 goal differential. However, they were much better last season, when they finished in seventh place (five spots ahead of Bournemouth), so it seems way too early to completely write off Burnley after just five games.
Last season, Burnley finished 7-5-7 at home in league games, compared to 4-6-9 for Bournemouth away from home. Given the draw is a no bet here, the odds are in Burnley’s favor if we use the much larger sample size from last campaign.
Bournemouth are the favorites in this match, in part due to their strong start to the season (3-1-1). Not to completely discredit what Bournemouth have accomplished, but they have played just two road games thus far, one in which they needed two late goals to eek out a 2-1 victory over cellar-dwelling West Ham, and the other was a 2-0 loss at Chelsea. Bournemouth are a bad road team, and Burnley are much better than they have played so far this season, so this game seems like the perfect storm for an upset.
Liverpool vs Southampton
Southampton to Score at Least 1 Goal (5/6)
I discussed Southampton’s potential for better offensive results in last week’s article, and it is relevant again this week, as they have pretty favorable odds to score just one goal against Liverpool this weekend.
Southampton rank fourth in the league in shots per game and third in shots per game inside the six-yard box. The Saints are creating plenty of goal-scoring chances, and asking them to get one goal should not be too difficult of a task. Southampton have scored at least once in each of their last four matches, although none of their opponents have been as strong as Liverpool is.
From Liverpool’s perspective, they will be coming off a difficult midweek game against PSG in the Champions League, so we may see a little bit of squad rotation and/or fatigue from Jurgen Klopp’s side. Even so, we certainly shouldn't expect a Southampton victory, but they should be able to at least get a goal in this game.
Manchester United vs Wolves
Wolves +1 (7/5)
It’s early in the season, but Wolves are currently just one point behind Manchester United, and they are actually well ahead of them in terms of WhoScored.com’s rating system, which currently has Wolves with the 7th-highest team average, compared to 11th for Manchester United.
Wolves are currently ahead of Manchester United in shots per game (15.6 to 14.0) and in shots conceded per game (10.0 to 10.2). Wolves are legitimately playing at a level that rivals, if not surpasses, that of Manchester United at the moment, and they even managed to earn a draw at home against mighty Manchester City earlier this season.
Not only that, but like Liverpool, Manchester United played a midweek game that could result in either squad rotation or fatigue for this weekend’s matchup. Look for Wolves to at least keep it within a goal and possibly earn a result in this matchup.
