3 FanDuel Premier League Under-the-Radar Plays for Matchweek 7
If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you know the importance of being contrarian in large-field tournaments. Recognizing which players are going to be owned by the masses and finding others who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The same goes for DFS Premier League. Even though the large-field tournaments aren't quite as large as they are for other sports, there is still value in identifying quality under-the-radar plays.
This article will discuss FanDuel's main Saturday slate, which starts at 10:00 a.m. EST and features seven matches.
|Saturday, September 28th
|Watford at Wolves|
|Brighton at Chelsea|
|Southampton at Tottenham|
|West Ham at Bournemouth|
|Norwich at Crystal Palace|
|Burnley at Aston Villa|
|Manchester City at Everton|
The seventh main slate of the Premier League season features three big-six sides in Chelsea, Tottenham, and Manchester City. Manchester City is the largest favorite, with an implied win probability of 77.8% on the road against Everton, per FanDuel Sportsbook. Chelsea is slightly behind Manchester City, with an implied win probability of 70.6% at home against Brighton. Totten are just behind Chelsea, with an implied win probability of 69.7% at home against Southampton.
Of the non-elite sides, Wolves is the largest favorite, with an implied win probability of 54.5% at home against Watford. Crystal Palace rounds out the slate with an implied win probability of 52.4% at home against Norwich. Aston Villa and Bournemouth are the slightest of favorites in pick'ems against Burnley and West Ham, respectively.
Following their shock midweek defeat to Colchester in the League Cup, Tottenham is likely to carry the lowest ownership of the big-six sides this weekend. With Manchester City and Tottenham providing several options are the top end of the salary range and Chelsea's stars slotting in just below them, ownership is likely to be lowered on mid-priced options this weekend.
With that in mind, here are three players to consider this weekend -- especially for tournament formats -- who may fly under the radar
Jordan Ayew, MID/FWD, Crystal Palace
FanDuel Salary: $16
At 1.72 goals, Crystal Palace has the highest implied goal total on the slate outside of the big-six sides. Norwich City's horrible road form continued last week with their 0-2 defeat at Burnley, and they have now lost all three of their away fixtures by a combined score of 8-1. Crystal Palace has just two goals over three home matches this season, but they have scored in each of their last two, and Norwich will be the weakest opposition they have faced at home so far this season.
Ayew has produced double digital FanDuel points in four of his five starts this season, including scoring in back-to-back games against Manchester United and Aston Villa in August. Since then, Ayew has been kept off the scoresheet by Tottenham and Wolves but has managed to put all three of his shots taken in those games on target. Ayew has become a mainstay in the Crystal Palace lineup and should benefit from the additional attention his opposition pays to his high-profile teammate, Wilfried Zaha ($15).
Zaha's salary is also a major reason why Ayew could fly under the radar this weekend. Zaha is $1 cheaper than Ayew and, despite not having a goal yet this season, has been fairly productive over his last two games with 13 fouls drawn and 3 shots on goal. Ayew is very likely to be the lesser owned of the two, but pairing both of them together is an excellent way to take advantage of a Norwich side that the public continues to overestimate based on Teemu Pukki's ($19) early success and their shock upset of Manchester City earlier in September.
Wesley, MID/FWD, Aston Villa
FanDuel Salary: $17
Aston Villa's attacking trio of Wesley, Sebastien Haller ($17), and John McGinn ($18) have all had excellent starts to their Premier League campaigns. Haller is averaging 21.7 FanDuel points per match and has three goals on the season, but he has cooled off with just a combined 18.1 FanDuel points over his last two matches. McGinn has is an early front runner for the best value of the season -- through five weeks he is averaging 25 FanDuel points per match and has two matches with over 30 FanDuel points and none with less than 16.5.
At 14.9 FanDuel points per match, Wesley has the lowest average points per match of the trio but scored last weekend against Arsenal. Wesley should be the lowest owned of the group due to McGinn's incredible consistency and the fact that both of Haller's big performances this season came in games that were on the main Saturday slate. All three of members of this trio are in play, but the one most likely to go overlooked this weekend is Wesley.
Villa's results to start the season haven't been great, but they have been a better side at home, where they earned all four of their points. Burnley have been a decent side on the road but allowed a goal in each of their three away matches, including one apiece to Wolves and Brighton. Following their 2-0 victory over Norwich on last weekend's main slate, Burnley may be the more popular side in this match, but Villa has the higher implied goal total and is at home.
Harry Wilson, MID/FWD, Bournemouth
FanDuel Salary: $16
Through six matchweeks, the only thing holding Harry Wilson back is playing time. Wilson has made four starts and five appearances for Bournemouth this season but has only averaged 62.6 minutes played per appearance. Despite his limited playing time, Wilson has scored three goals and is averaging 16.32 FanDuel points per match.
When he's on the pitch, Wilson has been involved in set pieces, as well. He is third on the team in crosses from corners with four, and second on the team in shots and crosses from free kicks with four. All signs point to Wilson being a key part of Bournemouth's build-up play and finishing in the final third when he is on the pitch. While there is no guarantee that Wilson's playing time will change this weekend, that uncertainty should keep his ownership low despite his production.
Wilson's ownership should also be lowered due to the abundance of solid options in his price range. Erik Lamela ($15), Wilfried Zaha ($15), Raul Jimenez ($17), and Tim Cantwell ($16) are all likely to siphon ownership away from Wilson in addition to the ownership Callum Wilson ($19), his teammate, carries.