World Cup Betting Guide for Wednesday 11/30/22: Will Argentina Stay on Track and Advance?

We all know that the World Cup doesn’t come around every year, and that can make for some difficult projecting.

Team qualifying samples are small, injuries are crucial, and opponent adjustments must be made before projecting out World Cup matches.

Thankfully, we have ways to do that, and numberFire’s World Cup betting model offers up game-specific projections for each stage of the World Cup.

All World Cup odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Here are the best bets for World Cup action on Wednesday, November 30th.

(Note: all records are listed in win-loss-draw format rather than win-draw-loss. All expected goal data from FBRef.)

Australia (+550) vs. Denmark (-200)

Draw odds: +330

Australia has earned three points through two matches, thanks to a 1-0 win over Tunisia. In their opener, they scored early on France, but the French side proved too dominant and wound up winning 4-1. They now need a win to advance; a loss means elimination.

For Denmark, they will move on with a win -- excluding the chance that Tunisia beats France and winds up with a better goal differential. So, a win basically means advancement for Denmark.

Through two matches, my data has Australia at a -2.84 opponent-adjusted expected goal differential. Denmark is at -0.75.

numberFire's model is big on Denmark and ranks them ninth in the world. Australia is just 52nd in the rankings despite sitting 38th in the FIFA World Rankings and is likely overrated based on the expected goal data through two matches, too.

For that reason, Denmark's moneyline (-200) and Denmark to cover (-1.0; +150) are five-star plays.

Tunisia (+700) vs. France (-230)

Draw odds: +340

Even with France qualified, they're a -230 favorite. A win or draw means they win the group, so they still have some work to do. (They'll also win Group D if Australia loses.) My adjustments to the expected goal data still leave France (+4.24) as the best-performing team in the World Cup.

Tunisia has played pretty well. Their adjusted expected goal differential is just -0.50. They'll need a win, Denmark to win, and tiebreak help, so their chances to play spoiler are quite minimal.

France probably won't let Tunisia linger, and they were able to generate 4.0 and 2.4 expected goals in their matches thus far. They should be able to cover, so France -1.0 (at nice +125 odds) checks out.

Poland (+650) vs. Argentina (-210)

Draw odds: +310

Group C has a lot going on.

Poland leads the group with four points. Argentina has three.

Therefore, a win or draw against Argentina means Poland will qualify, and they'll win the group for certain by beating Argentina.

Argentina has a win-and-advance scenario, though, and the odds are in their favor to do so at -210. Argentina has the best adjusted defense (by expected goals allowed) in the World Cup so far, and Poland has averaged just 1.06 expected goals once accounting for opponents faced.

All of this means a low projected score, and so under 2.5 goals (-150) checks out. We can expect Argentina's dominant defense to stifle Poland's attack.

Saudi Arabia (+370) vs. Mexico (-150)

Draw odds: +310

A win for Saudi Arabia means advancement. Mexico needs a win and for Poland to upset Argentina. There are tiebreaker implications for Mexico if they win and Argentina isn't upset, so they could try to up the offense and ensure there are enough goals to make up any potential differential needed.

But with a win doing the job for Saudi Arabia, they could aim to slow things down. The issue there: their adjusted expected goal average allowed is -1.84, ranking them 29th among 32 World Cup teams.

Mexico's offense is averaging just 0.50 adjusted expected goals per game, though, so this one might be decided by a single goal.

The under (2.5; -104) is numberFire's preferred bet in this matchup.