A Wide Receiver to Target in Each Round of Your Fantasy Football Draft
Round 7: Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles
ADP: 78th overall (7.05)
Let's do a blind player comparison and look at a pair of wideouts who are entering their third year.
| Year | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns | Pos Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player A | 2014 | 67 | 872 | 8 | 24th |
| Player A | 2015 | 85 | 997 | 8 | 20th |
| Player B | 2014 | 32 | 444 | 3 | 76th |
| Player B | 2015 | 64 | 733 | 6 | 38th |
Player A clearly looks like the better asset, but it's Player B who is being taken nearly two full rounds earlier.
Player B is Donte Moncrief while Jordan Matthews is Player A. I guess making the slide about Matthews was a slight spoiler.
Now, fantasy isn't that simple, and I'm not trying to say we should take Matthews over Moncrief (we shouldn't). But Matthews is a very good, reliable option this late in the draft.
Matthews was a solid WR2 last year, finishing as WR20 ahead of Mike Evans, Amari Cooper and T.Y. Hilton. What really makes Matthews enticing, though, is his rock-solid role.
Matthews posted a 20.71% target market share a year ago, and he was very clearly the Philadelphia Eagles' top receiver. Nelson Agholor, with a meager 6.96% market share, was the next highest wideout while tight end Zach Ertz (18.12%) was the only other player above 15%. Considering the Eagles have essentially the same exact group of pass-game weapons -- the recent trade for Dorial Green-Beckham notwithstanding -- and quarterback in Sam Bradford, it stands to reason that Matthews should see a similar role.
It's not all rosy, however. In PPR formats, Matthews was a WR1 (top 12) just three times last season, and among wideouts with at least 80 targets, he checked in 35th in Reception NEP per target. When it comes to fantasy, though, volume can absolutely trump some inefficiency.
While the loss of coach Chip Kelly means the Eagles are unlikely to run as many plays this season, as the sixth-worst team in the NFL, per our projections, Philly should see plenty of negative game scripts.
Our models have Matthews as WR28, and he offers a nice discount as the 33rd receiver off the board.
