The 13 Best Values in Fantasy Football Drafts

Mohamed Sanu, WR, Atlanta Falcons

Mohamed Sanu's numbers aren't all that inspiring. He's got a career 11.8 yards per reception average, and anytime he's seen significant volume in an NFL offense -- the last three years -- he's been around average or below average in per-target efficiency according to our numbers.

But, man, I'm such a sucker for late-round guaranteed volume.

The Falcons' pass-catching depth chart has very little obvious skill outside of Julio Jones, and the team has ranked in the top half of passing plays run every season since Matt Ryan's rookie year. That means that there's a high market share to capture in a pass-first offense.

Volume.

Sanu should hit 100 targets this year unless he just completely collapses, which in and of itself warrants a late-11th round selection. But there's even more to his upside.

Last year, Matt Ryan had a 3.4% touchdown rate, meaning just 3.4% of his passes ended as touchdowns. His career rate is 4.5%, and based on regression analysis, his 2016 rate should hover around 4.24%.

That tells us that there'll probably be more touchdowns thrown in the Falcons offense this year compared to last, when it's likely folks are drafting Sanu while placing him in last year's offense.

The last bit of good news about Sanu is a little depressing, but what happens if Julio Jones sustains an injury? Because the last time that happened in an offense where Sanu was a starter -- A.J. Green went down back in 2014 -- Sanu stepped up and averaged 5.5 receptions, 95.75 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game over a four-game stretch.

Like a lot of the players on this list, Sanu is one with a relatively decent floor -- one that could yield WR3 numbers for your team -- and a ceiling that often goes ignored.