5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 11
Cleveland Browns Passing Offense
Yeah. So. This could be really bad. The Cleveland Browns' implied team total currently sits at just 20.25, well below the mark we'd usually desire. The Baltimore Ravens just dismantled them on national television last week, and they can't keep their quarterbacks off the training table.
It's still just too tempting to completely lay off, as long as the weather improves throughout the week. The current projections are for 19 mile-per-hour winds, in which case we'd absolutely want to divest from both teams. The matchup, though, necessitates discussion on the chance that the forecast shifts.
The Browns' opponents -- the Pittsburgh Steelers -- enter Week 11 ranked 27th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. This puts them right behind the aforementioned struggling Titans and the much-maligned New York Jets. They've been struggling with efficiency for a while now, and that has come despite a lack of quality competition.
This year, the Steelers have faced just four quarterbacks who currently rank in the top 15 in Passing NEP per drop back. All four of them passed for at least 300 yards against Pittsburgh, and Tom Brady and Dak Prescott did so on 26 and 32 passing attempts, respectively.
You may not think Cody Kessler is part of that group, but as of right now, he is. He ranks exactly 15th in both Passing NEP per drop back and Success Rate, holding roughly league-average marks in the two categories. Considering the conditions he has faced, that's pretty darn impressive.
With all quarterbacks -- especially a third-round rookie -- we want to be wary of negative game script. This is where a player is most subject to the wrath of sacks, fumbles, and interceptions, the events that can murder a quality fantasy outing in short order. For Kessler, though, that hasn't really deterred his efficiency, and dude has spent plenty of time playing from behind.
| Situation | Dropbacks | Passing NEP | Passing NEP per Drop Back | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading or Tied | 47 | -3.31 | -0.07 | 38.30% |
| Trailing | 146 | 36.13 | 0.25 | 50.68% |
Kessler's metrics while leading or tied are counter-logical, but the sample is small enough where we can largely withhold judgement. The sample size is significant when he has trailed, though, and the results there are good enough to merit consideration.
This isn't to say you should necessarily use Kessler in DFS. Head coach Hue Jackson could pull the plug at any moment, and that's not really a risk we want to inherit. If the weather clears up, and Jackson commits to Kessler, then it's a different discussion. For now, let's focus on the fact that Terrelle Pryor and Corey Coleman could feast in this matchup.
Even with Coleman back, Pryor's role will be huge. He has played four games with Coleman, and his target market share in those games is 28.2%, a slight tick above his mark of 25.1% in games without Coleman. In a game where the Browns should have to throw a decent amount, Pryor's a solid selection.
Coleman's more of a price-based recommendation at $5,400 on FanDuel, but there are plenty of reasons to buy him at that salary. His target market share in the four games he has played is 21.4%, a decent number when you consider his bargain pricing. Again, as long as the weather complies, this is a solid place to invest in a downtrodden team.
