10 Fantasy Football Bust Candidates in 2017

Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders

Derek Carr has improved his fantasy rank since entering the league in 2014. Among passers with at least eight games played in a season, he ranked as the QB23 in 2014, QB18 in 2015, and QB10 in 2016.

His ADP puts him at QB6. All right, then. Maybe if he continues tacking on production he can get there. I guess that's the rationale.

But Carr and the Oakland Raiders draw the toughest pass defense schedule, according to our Net Expected Points (NEP) projections for this year. SharpFootball also sees them with one of the toughest draws, too.

Carr's volume has declined year over year (622 drop backs, 604, and 576), but his efficiency has improved (-0.07 Passing NEP per drop back, 0.06, 0.20) in each season. That's great from a football perspective but not so great from a pure fantasy standpoint.

Since 2011, 14 of the 36 quarterbacks who finished QB6 or better in a season did so on fewer than 550 attempts. Of those 14, seven had at least six rushing touchdowns (Carr has none in his three years).

Further, eight of them added at least 60 fantasy points on the ground and 11 of them produced at least 38 fantasy points via the rush. Carr has 29.4 career fantasy points on the ground.

Coming off a broken leg and with Marshawn Lynch in the backfield with him, Carr isn't likely to become a rushing threat all of a sudden, and the passing volume -- at least against that schedule -- suggests he's not going to finish as a top-six fantasy quarterback.