5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 15

Jacksonville Jaguars' Passing Offense

If you had said earlier in the year that we'd be considering the Jacksonville Jaguars' passing offense when they were 11-point favorites, you'd likely have gotten a firm middle finger in response. Head coach Doug Marrone has said he would run the ball every play if possible. But as the season has progressed, the thought of targeting them in spots like this has become steadily less vomit-inducing.

A big part of the credit there goes to Blake Bortles himself. Marrone's desire not to pass was justified based on the way that Bortles played last year. But things have been much better in 2017.

Entering Week 15, Bortles sits 15th in Passing NEP per drop back out of 40 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs. He's ahead of guys like Jameis Winston, Cam Newton, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Tyrod Taylor, all of whom have had some viability for DFS this year. Efficiency is what we want out of our quarterbacks, and Bortles has been much more skilled in that department.

It certainly doesn't hurt that the matchup here is mighty juicy. Thanks to a list of injuries so long it would make Leo Tolstoy blush, the Houston Texans have slid down to 21st against the pass, according to numberFire's metrics. And the full-season stats sell their wretchedness short with things getting drastically worse after injuries to J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus in Week 5. They also lost cornerback Kevin Johnson briefly, but he has been active for each of the past seven games, and it hasn't had a positive impact.

The latter split is buoyed a bit by Russell Wilson's monster performance in Week 8, but they've also allowed three-touchdown days to Jared Goff and Blaine Gabbert with Jacoby Brissett and Jimmy Garoppolo topping 300 yards. This has been a tremendous defense to target for a while now.

That matchup should give Bortles a floor. But in order to unlock his ceiling, we'd need a bit of volume to come along with it. That's not as big of an obstacle as it used to be, either.

Over the past eight games, Bortles has attempted an average of 34.4 passes per game without ever cranking out fewer than 26. His improved play has gained him increased trust with the coaching staff, and when you look at his advanced metrics, that all seems justified. This is a different passer than we saw both last year and the early part of 2017.

What makes Bortles even more palatable is that it's easy to stack him with a receiver. You can go with either Marqise Lee or Dede Westbrook, and there truly isn't a wrong answer.

We'll start off with Westbrook, the cheaper between the two at $5,700. We've got four games of data on him since he came off of injured reserve, and in those games, he's rocking 26.8% of the team's overall targets, 47.4% of their deep targets, and 28.6% of the red-zone looks. That's monster usage for a guy at this price. Speedsters Marquise Goodwin, T.Y. Hilton, Paul Richardson, Tyler Lockett, and Brandin Cooks have all racked up at least 100 yards against this defense this year. Westbrook could be primed to do the same, making him a fine play.

The only major issue with Westbrook is that he had a big game last week with 81 yards and a touchdown, meaning he's going to carry a bit of ownership. That could incentivize paying up for Lee at $6,800.

In two of the four games since Westbrook made his debut, Lee has been matched up with elite opposing corners in Patrick Peterson and Jason McCourty. But in the two other games, Lee has 25.8% of the targets and 36.1% of the air yards, according to FantasyADHD.com. Westbrook has been at 27.4% and 32.4%, respectively, in those same games. The two are very similar, meaning both are in play.

If you're looking here in cash games, Westbrook is likely the preferred option because of his price. But for tournaments, there are enough things lining up for Lee to make him a tremendous play who should come with lower ownership.