DraftKings Daily Fantasy Football Helper for Week 3
Quarterbacks
High-Cost Option: Aaron Rodgers $8,000
A strong case for Tom Brady could be made here, but with the Patriots hosting the Jaguars, I'm expected a lot more ground and pound -- and some heavy LeGarrette Blount usage -- that will likely limit Brady's ceiling for Week 3 in a more ball-control game script. Aaron Rodgers, however, gets to take on the Kansas City Chiefs at Lambeau in a matchup that could likely see heavier passing volume in what Vegas predicts as one of the highest scoring affairs this week.
With the uncertainty revolving around Eddie Lacy's health, the Packers could look to air the ball out even after watching James Starks fill in admirably last week. Looking to continue his early season success, Rodgers faces an up and down Chiefs defense on Monday Night at home. The Chiefs passing defense has allowed 5 touchdowns over the past 2 games while allowing 268 passing yards per game.
Green Bay's offensive line will likely have their hands full trying to protect Rodgers, as Justin Houston already has three sacks on this season. David Bakhtiari and Don Barclay (Bryan Bulaga's replacement) allowed a combined 19 pressures, sacks, and hits on Rodgers as the Packers' tackles struggled immensely last week against Seattle.
Rookie Marcus Peters has had two stellar performances to kick off his professional career, notching two interceptions and seven passes defended. He'll likely be matched up with Davante Adams, who had a tough time with Richard Sherman last week, netting only 5-33-0 while missing some time due to injury. Randall Cobb -- who's run 94% of his routes from the slot so far this year per Pro Football Focus -- will be featured heavily in what will likely be a mismatch with the Chiefs secondary, namely Phillip Gaines or the mightly struggling Jamell Flemming. The Chiefs have shut down opposing tight ends so far this season (3-30-1) in their first two games, but Richard Rodgers is starting to emerge as a viable weapon for Green Bay (4 targets, 1 touchdown, 1 2-point conversion last week).
Aaron Rodgers has averaged 27.6 fantasy points over his last nine games at home in DraftKings scoring. At an $8,000 price range, he's a safe bet to hit value (three fantasy points per $1,000 in salary cap) in a plus matchup against a defense that has allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Mid-Cost Option: Carson Palmer $6,600
One affordable mid-cost matchup that I've been hitting week after week so far this season is Carson Palmer. Palmer faces a San Franciso 49ers defense that was just torched by two of numberFire's metric superstars last week, as the Steelers trampled the 49ers at home. After allowing 369 passing yards with 3 touchdowns to Pittsburgh, San Francisco is at risk of being shredded by Palmer.
The Cardinals have yet to allow a sack as their offensive line has kept a clean pocket for Palmer from both the Saints and Bears. The mass exodus of defensive players from the 49ers has left their defensive unit void of playmakers, and Arizona should once again be able to provide enough time for Palmer to work through his progressions. With Mike Iupati expected to make his 2015 season debut this week, the offensive line should perform even better as they continue to find their form.
Larry Fitzgerald's career-high three touchdowns last week should say plenty as to just how efficiently this passing offense is operating. In a great matchup against Tramaine Brock, Fitz is once again in play for another solid outing. John Brown draws Kenneth Acker (who?) after he had struggled with a tough draw against Antonio Brown in Pittsburgh last week. The 49ers only have 5 passes defensed and 1 interception on the season, while allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 74.6% of their passes (third most).
The Cardinals now reign as the league leader in total points scored, a feat largely due to a healthy resurgence of Palmer, who gets to face the seventh-most generous defense against fantasy quarterbacks through two weeks.
Low-Cost Option: Alex Smith $6,000
The Chiefs enter as 7-point underdogs at Lambeau, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Alex Smith being forced to come out firing to keep the game within reach. Our limited two-game sample so far this season has shown the best and the worst from Smith, but if looking for a low-cost option, Smith could very likely hit value in one of this week's highest projected point totals by Vegas.
Since moving Clay Matthews to inside linebacker late last year, the Packers have transformed their best pass rusher into taking on fullbacks head on. Their pass rush has significantly decreased as, 35-year old Julius Peppers now becomes their go-to sack artist as he paces the team with 2.5 sacks on the year. The Chiefs retooled the interior of their offensive line this offseason and the results haven't been favorable to date. They have allowed the sixth-most sacks (6) on the season as they try to get Eric Fisher back up to speed following a preseason high-ankle sprain.
The Chiefs' wide receivers haven't given much back to Alex Smith so far, but could be in for a rebound this week. Jeremy Maclin has yet to exhibit the big play potential he was signed for, posting only 9-109-0 through his first two games but squares off against rookie Damarious Randall. Albert Wilson draws a tougher assignment in Sam Shields, so Smith will need a big game out of Travis Kelce if he hopes to open up any running lanes for Jamaal Charles. Kelce and Charles have combined for half of the team's receptions (19 of 38), 49% of the team's receiving yards, and all of the team's receiving touchdowns (3). The Packers have done a fair job limiting tight ends to date, holding Martellus Bennett (5-55-1) and Jimmy Graham (1-11-0) in check, so Kelce will draw a tough assignment. Charles should be able to shake Matthews for several receptions as Matthews continues working on improving his coverage skills to get on par with his pass rushing skills.
GPP Wildcard: Marcus Mariota $6,100
The Titans host the Colts this weekend after the Tennessee offense fell flat against Cleveland. Marcus Mariota now has a 6:0 touchdown to interception ratio through two games with 491 total yards and 3 fumbles.
Despite the constant pressure surround Mariota due to his offensive line, Mariota has still been able to complete 64.2% of his attempts. Outside of stud defensive tackle Henry Anderson -- who has five tackles for loss and the team's only sack -- the pass rush from Indy is near nonexistent. Expect the offensive line to get back on track this week and provide Mariota the time needed to make plays for his offense.
After a "down" performance following his four-touchdown debut, the hype surrounding Mariota may have faded to the point where he may become a lesser owned quarterback this week. Mariota's lack of turnovers, high completion percentage, and plus-matchup -- while facing a defense potentially without Vontae Davis -- could lead to another surprising performance from last year's Heisman winner in a sneaky GPP play.