4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 7
On the Week 7 FanDuel main slate, there are seven games with an over/under of at least 49.0 points, which makes for some nice team and games stacks across the league. There are also eight teams implied to score at least 27.0 points this week, which should lead to some high-scoring players.
In this article, I will reflect my favorite DFS stacks for this week. These decisions are made by using player projections, Vegas implied team totals and player draft percentage projections.
The first stack I like this week is a Cincinnati Bengals' stack between Joe Burrow and Tyler Boyd, as they’re set to face a division rival, the Cleveland Browns. It’s not typical of me to start this article with a contrarian stack, which this one is, but I keep finding myself coming back to these two when diving into the Week 7 main slate.
For starters, Joe Burrow has looked pretty good through his first six weeks as a rookie quarterback. If you take away his Week 5 dud against the Baltimore Ravens, he’s averaging 19.21 FanDuel points per game. While that’s not a jaw-dropping number, he’s proven that he’s certainly capable of posting solid fantasy outputs.
What sticks out to me is the number of passes he’s attempting on a weekly basis. Through six weeks, Burrow currently leads the league with 246 pass attempts and 300-yard passing performances in four of six games. He has yet to have a game in which he throws fewer than 30 pass attempts, which is a result of the Bengals having a pass rate of 62.2% - the eighth-highest across the league.
Burrow’s best performance so far this season came against the Browns back in Week 2, when he threw for 316 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Browns' secondary has been nothing to fear to start this season, as they’ve allowed the fourth-most touchdown passes to opposing quarterbacks. This looks to be another great spot for Burrow to show why the Bengals drafted him first overall last spring.
Stacking up Burrow with one of his receivers against this Browns secondary is intriguing, and Boyd is the wideout who sticks out to me. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), no other Bengals receiver has a better matchup this week than Boyd does. He’s currently expected to line up in the slot against Browns’ cornerback, Kevin Johnson. PFF is giving Boyd a 15% advantage in this matchup.
Boyd currently leads the Bengals with 48 targets this season, and like Burrow, he had himself a solid game back in Week 2 against the Browns. In that one, he saw 8 targets and reeled in 7 catches for 72 yards and a touchdown.
As I mentioned in the first paragraph, this is a contrarian stack. Per RotoWire, Burrow is expected to be rostered in fewer than than 3% of lineups this week, while Boyd is expected to be rostered in around 9% of lineups.
Kansas City Chiefs
The next stack I like this week is a Kansas City Chiefs stack between Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill. They’re heading into Denver this week to face the Broncos with an implied team total of 27.5 points.
Mahomes has had his way with the Broncos since becoming the Chiefs’ starting quarterback in 2018. He has yet to lose a game to the division rival, and he’s thrown for more than 300 yards in each of the last three full games he’s played against them (he got hurt in their first meeting of 2019, playing less than half the game).
He has the highest salary among main-slate signal-callers, but it’s for all the right reasons. Mahomes' numbers this year are right on pace with his 2018 numbers, when he eventually went on to win league MVP:
Patrick Mahomes 2018 MVP season vs. 2020, Weeks 1-6:
- 2018: 29.5 PPG, 1,865-18-4 passing, 24-75-2 rushing
- 2020: 29.2 PPG, 1,699-15-1 passing, 34-165-2 rushing
Mahomes is +400 to win MVP -- and he's in MVP form.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) October 20, 2020
Per our numbers, Mahomes is projected to have a top-five fantasy performance at the quarterback position this week, and he offers the second-highest ceiling score. We’ve already seen him top 30 FanDuel points twice this season, and he’s certainly capable of doing that again this week.
Now Kansas City has a lot of offensive weapons to stack with Mahomes, but Tyreek Hill seems to be a guy flying a bit under the radar at the wide receiver position this week. Rotowire currently has him projected to be rostered in roughly 7% of lineups.
Hill has been tremendously consistent this season, scoring a touchdown in all but just one game. However, we haven’t seen him have a blow-up outing quite yet. We all know it doesn’t take much for him to have one of those games, and I like rolling the dice on him this week.
It helps that Broncos will be without number-one cornerback A.J. Bouye this week, which gives a boost to the entire Chiefs' passing game. Hill’s speed and deep-threat ability make him one of the most dangerous players at his position, and he should cause problems for this Broncos’ secondary.
Whenever Mahomes and Hill are projected to be rostered in less than 10% of lineups, it’s worth taking a shot on them. We’ve seen these two combine for 60+ FanDuel points on multiple occasions.
(Keep an eye on the weather in this game. There is snow in the forecast in Denver.)
Los Angeles Chargers
I’m going to go with another rookie quart as one of my stacks. Justin Herbert has been great to start his rookie campaign, and now he gets to face the Jacksonville Jaguars at home with an implied team total of 28.25 points.
The Jaguars have allowed a generous 30.2 points per game to their opponents this season, and that goes up to 32.0 points when playing on the road. Both of those rank in the top eight for most points allowed per game across the league.
Per our algorithm, Herbert is projected to throw for over 250 yards and 1.93 passing touchdowns against the Jags -- currently sitting as the seventh-highest projected quarterback this week. We’ve yet to see Herbert throw for below 264 yards in any game this season, and he’s combined for 7 passing touchdowns in his last two games.
His stats have translated well into producing solid fantasy numbers, as he’s scored at least 23 FanDuel points in three of his four starts. He now gets his easiest matchup to date against the Jaguars, who are the third-worst pass D by our numbers.
I like stacking up Herbert with Keenan Allen against this susceptible Jags secondary. Allen has been Herbert’s favorite target since taking over as the Chargers’ quarterback, with Allen getting targeted on 30.9% of the rookie's throws. That ranks as the third-best target share in that span across the entire league. He also leads the team with 31.2% of the team’s air yards and 6 red zone targets.
His matchup this week doesn’t get any better, either. Per PFF, Allen is expected to line up against Jaguars’ cornerback Tre Herndon, who ranks 92nd of 113 qualified cornerbacks in 2020. PFF is giving Allen a 44% advantage in this matchup, which is the fourth-highest advantage among all wide receivers in Week 7.
Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions
Both teams have averaged a touch more than 26 points per game this season while also allowing their opponents to score an average of at least 28 points per game. This game has shootout written all over it.
I think you can stack this game in several different ways, but my favorite way is to go with Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley from the Falcons' side, and then run it back with Kenny Golladay on the Lions' side.
The Falcons are currently 2.0-point favorites in this matchup, which gives them a slightly better implied total of 28.25 points, compared to the Lions' clip of 26.25.
Matt Ryan has been rather inconsistent this season, posting more than 24 FanDuel points in three games and scoring below 13 FanDuel points in his other three outings. However, in his three dud games, Julio Jones did not play (with the exception of the Green Bay Packers' game, when Julio played the first half). In games that Julio has played the full game, Ryan is averaging 28.35 FanDuel points per game.
While I think Julio can be stacked with Ryan, I give the edge to Ridley this week. Why? Because Ridley has been the more consistent, reliable receiver of the two this year. Ridley has yet to miss a game due to injury, and he currently leads the team in both target share and air yards. He’s also seen nine red zone targets, compared to Julio’s five.
Per our model, Ridley is projected to be the third-highest scoring wide receiver this week, while Julio is projected to be the 11th-highest scoring wideout. The two are tremendously close in salary, as well, with Ridley being $100 more expensive than Julio.
Running back this stack with Golladay makes a lot of sense in what is a potential shootout. Golladay is also projecting very well by our model, currently sitting as the sixth-highest projected wide receiver.
Like Ridley, Golladay has a tremendous matchup this week. PFF currently expects him to be lined up against Falcons’ cornerback Kendall Sheffield for most of this game. Of the 113 qualified cornerbacks this season, Sheffield grades out second to last (112th), according to PFF. Golladay should have a field day against Sheffield, and PFF is giving him a 67% advantage in this matchup -- the highest advantage of any wide receiver this week.
Again, I think you can stack this game multiple different ways, but give me the two wide receivers who are near the top of our projections and have great cornerback matchups.
Griffin Swanson is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Griffin Swanson also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username GriffDogg_. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. (edited)