NFL Betting Guide: Super Bowl LV
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, game line, or moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would usually bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets for tonight.
Under 55.5: 1-Star Rating out of 5
Spread: No Pick
Bucs Moneyline (+144): 1-Star Rating out of 5
You've heard all of the backstories leading up to Super Bowl LV between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- this is the first time a team has played in its own stadium; this is the first Super Bowl with the top two passing yardage leaders; Tom Brady is secretly Patrick Mahomes' grandfather. You've heard all that. What you haven't heard -- or read in this case, dear reader -- is what bets numberFire is honing in on for the big game.
Mahomes, the NFL's career postseason leader in passer rating, will take his Chiefs into Raymond James Stadium to face off against a guy who needs two hands for his Super Bowl rings (Tyrone Rugen could have done it on one; checkmate, Brady.). Despite being a true road team, the Chiefs are favored by 3.0 points to take home their second straight championship.
These foes faced off in Week 12 in what the box score says was a close game. The Chiefs walked away that week with a 27-24 win after getting up 17-0 and 27-10. Tyreek Hill had more than 200 yards in the first quarter en route to a 269-yard, 3-touchdown day. One of the biggest reasons for his massive game may have been the presence of Sammy Watkins, who was a limited participant in practice yesterday.
The Bucs already have enough to worry about with Hill, Travis Kelce, and all of the other Chiefs weapons, but Watkins' presence this year has allowed Hill to get downfield more effectively. In the 10 games Watkins has played, Hill has averaged 16.4 yards per reception, 3.0 more than when he's been out. His presence has also allowed Hill to be more of a weapon on the ground; Tyreek has averaged 12.4 yards per rush when Watkins has played and just 2.9 when he hasn't.
In the past 10 seasons, home playoff underdogs have gone 5-10 straight up (SU) and 8-6-1 against the spread (ATS). The under has gone 10-5 in those contests, with the points scored being an average of 4.3 points below the average total. The Bucs have gone 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS this year as underdogs. The under has gone 3-2 in those contests.
The Chiefs have won 86.4% of the games Mahomes has played in when they are favored by at least 3.0 points, though they have covered in just 51.2% of those games. The under has hit in 53.7% of those games. Brady's teams have covered 65.8% of the time when they've been at least 3.0-point underdogs.
The betting public is leaning toward the Chiefs in this game; 66% of bettors and 78% of the money are on Kansas City to win. Fifty-four percent of bettors are taking the Bucs +3.0, though only 47% of the money is on them to cover. Seventy-one percent of bets and 73% of the money is on the over.
numberFire gives the Chiefs a 53.3% chance of winning on Sunday, projecting them to win by 1.0 points. Given the Bucs' moneyline odds are currently at +144, however, the expected value of a $100 bet on the Bucs to win is $113.88. We mark that bet as a one-star play. We have the two teams projected to combine for 54.6 points, marginally under the 55.5-point total. We give the under a 55.3% chance of hitting and mark it as a one-star play, as well.